Phase II (loosening social distancing restrictions) will begin when policy makers decide it is safe to do so. Criteria for this decision are still being debated but will likely be some combination of sustained reduction in confirmed cases, adequate health care capacity, and sufficient testing capabilities to identify infected individuals. Insufficient testing capabilities is a pressing problem.
Phase II is likely to roll with restrictions on different sectors being loosened in stages. Timing and sequencing are also being debated, but factors that will likely be considered are:
- Regional infection rates, lower potential for spread and sufficient health care capacity to deal with ongoing infections. Early indications for Arkansas are promising, but due to inadequate testing, there is still a great deal of uncertainty.
- Vulnerable populations. Schools and universities are frequently mentioned for early stage reductions. Generally, businesses and organizations serving younger audiences will likely see earlier reductions in restrictions. Those dealing with older populations will have a harder go of it.
- The degree to which work can be done remotely. Businesses in industries that can do work remotely will likely be expected to continue to do so and will thus have lower priority.
- Economic value added. Sectors that play central roles in regional economies will likely be prioritized for early reductions.
Phase II will essentially be a series of real world experiments, some of which will work better than others. Communities should be prepared for cycles of loosening and tightening of social distance policies until Phase III (vaccine, herd immunity or effective treatment) is realized, which is likely to be several months away.